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Friday, December 31, 2004
Happy New Year's Eve, Tsunami, Tech 05' predictions
Here's to a great new year for all.Here's something I just wrote that may be of interest.
Asia's predicament is not of their own choosing. The Tsunami victims did not seek nor did they provoke an assault on their families and friends. They did not expect nor did they invite a confrontation with the largest recorded Tsuami disaster in history. Yet the true measure of a people's strength is how they rise out of tragedy when it does arive. Over 121,000 people were killed this week. One woman shared how as the waters rushed inland, she could no longer hold both her sons lest she lose both. She made a decision to let go of the 5 yr old and hold onto the 3 yr old. 2 hrs later and 1/2 a mile away, she found the 5 yr old boy alive and crying. The streets of heaven were too crowded with angels that day. One Swedish man described how an elderly couple struggled to hold onto the railing of a hotel swimming pool as 3 foot waves rushed over them. Risking his own life by nearly losing his own life after furniture came at him in a room fueled by high speed water smashing him up against a wall. He got out of the room, ran over to where the elderly couple were, pulled the man out, but lost sight of the wife. They never found his wife. The streets of heaven are too crowded with angels, but every time we think we have measured our capacity to meet a challenge, we look up and we're reminded that that capacity may well be limitless. This is a time to remember the heroes, not just the losses of life. God bless the memory of all that were lost, but God bless those who stood up to try and make a difference to help out those who needed it during the disaster and those who need help all across the Asian continents. As far as I'm concerned, the disaster is still present. There may be more deaths in the next few weeks than there were during the entire 15 minutes of the Tsunami. Cholera kills in 2 hrs after infection. Malaria, Measles, Malnutrition and food poisoning have all been reported over the last few days. I prayed a prayer for those who survived. I hope you can too.
On a lighter note:
Stu at Win2k makes me crazy as he's usually right on about the predictions for what will happen in Technology for the next year. Check it out:
And here Are The 2005 Predictions
IT MARKET IN GENERAL / MICROSOFT: As in 2004, MS is going to barrel along just fine. They were slapped on the wrist in Europe and will now start selling a version of Windows without Media Player over there, while appealing. It will not make any difference for sales or stock prices. 2004 turned out to be "the year of mergers" Look at a continued frenzied merger activity well into 2005 driven by a market forces. The IT budgets in 2005 will continue to climb at just single digit rates and focus on security. Think "more of 2004". Management will continue to keep costs down.
OPERATING SYSTEMS: I'm predicting the first actual usable beta of Longhorn arriving late 2005. It's going to have greatly improved security; built-in Web services; and a brand-new graphics subsystem. Forget about WinFS, the new file system, that's going to be '06 or '07. Linux will continue to go great guns and gobble up all legacy Unix. IDC claims the market revenue for desktops, servers, and packaged software running on Linux will top $35 billion by 2008. Forget about desktop Linux in 2005 though. Do not be surprised when WinXP Service Pack 3(!) will be announced late 2005. And during 2005, IE's marketshare will drop to under 80%, and mainly be replaced by Mozilla's firefox browser (I like it, it is fast and a lot more secure!)
NT: Time To Say Goodbye! Highly recommended to upgrade 'ye olde NT Servers'. But my prediction is there will still be over a million NT-servers running by the end of 2005, much to Redmond's chagrin. But the real reason for upgrading will be a specific attack written for NT-only using a vulnerability that MS never patched.
HARDWARE: (any hardware) Hybrid vehicles are going to be HUGE in 2005. -- Wireless piggybacking and piggyhacking are going to happen all the time. -- Apple will be coming out with a $600 machine that will become as big a hit as the iPod is now. -- Disconnected PDA's will become passe -- VOIP will be mainstream technology and you probably will deploy it in 2005 (wireless VOIP will remain in its infancy) -- Internet 2 will be deployed in a few cities this year and everyone is stunned with the response times -- TV technology is going to be skyrocketing with all kinds of High-Definition devices and Home Theater sales will jump 20-30% -- Micropayment infrastructure will make its debut in 2005 in at least one significant area and grow from there. -- BillG will announce the XBOX 2 at the CES show in January -- With faster network speeds, video phones will start to become finally real.
OPEN SOURCE: All the smoke that SCO was blowing has died down, and I expect that SCO will perish with it. But now patent infringement lawsuits will stick up their ugly heads and be much harder to subdue. Despite that, open source products will continue to proliferate.
NETWORKING: Will go wireless even more than 2004. This is the year your management will allow you to play with wireless in pilot projects and serious 'production-site' evaluations. Look at Wi-MAX to be making inroads and taking over Wi-Fi in some early adopter markets. Old-fashioned wired networks will grow both faster and larger in 2005. You'll be able to get your hands on much cheaper 10 Gigabit Ethernet products, and this type of equipment will start to spread to the outer edge.
SECURITY: All eyes are on Redmond. They are expected to roll out new tools, and continue to fortify their existing products. Expect a MS subscription-based combined antivirus/antispyware desktop tool late 2005. Networking and Storage companies will more and more integrate security features in their products. "Point solution" product shops will be scooped up by bigger fish. FUD will drive security policies, expect USB flash drives and iPods forbidden in some workplaces. Your organization will increasingly turn to proactive "defense-in-depth", business needs require it.
SPAM: Both the ratio for spam and viruses rose in 2004. During the last 12 months, emails infected with a virus was 1 in 16, compared to 2003 when it was just 1 in 33. The biggest 2004 virus was the MyDoom one in January. Looking at email for the full year 2004, the average number identified as spam was 73 percent. As a comparison, in 2003, the average was 40 percent. It sounds crazy but if this trend continues it will be over 90% in 2005 exceeding everyone's worst fears. It might take a different turn though. Spammers might throw their resources into Phishing instead. This by the way breaks all records, and is one of these hockey stick graphs and will create the largest IT scandal in 2005.
SPYWARE: OK, I admit I'm biased. So, keeping in mind that it's me saying this, antispyware tools are going to skyrocket in '05. Basically, everyone is going to need one of these tools. Well over 50% of sites will have an antispyware solution in place by the end of 2005.
"WILD-ASS GUESSES": A megavirus zombiefies 50% of unprotected broadband home PCs which in turn attack major sites for days using DoS. -- Steve Jobs retires from Apple and buys the New York Yankees -- President Bush will sign a law that home PC's have to be protected against malware -- The U.S. Government will introduce a biometrics-based ID-card in the fight against terrorists, and the fur will fly -- The FEDs will increase the interest rates back to 4-5%, the housing market bubble will finally burst, and the economy in general will have to wean itself off cheap money. -- The fourth Homeland Security Division's Cyber Czar in four years will call it quits in disgust, following Clark, Schmidt and Yoran.
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